A Modeling Perspective of Juvenile Crimes

Youth gang activity is on the rise again since declining from its peak in the early 2000s. We focus on contagion of youth gang membership and delinquency among adolescents who are at risk to peer pressure by creating an epidemiological model with differential equations. The model seeks to examine dynamics of the system through stability analysis. A tipping point that spreads youth gang activity is identified, and sensitivity analysis on the threshold condition is performed to discuss the prevention strategies and the effectiveness of juvenile arrest and sanction. All parameters are approximated and results are also exploited by simulations. Analysis indicates that the system is most sensitive to prevention, early intervention and an effective juvenile system with treatment and rehabilitation.